People who follow XRP closely argue that a major repricing wouldn’t come from one event, but from several conditions arriving at once — a “perfect storm.” This page tracks those conditions so you can see where they actually stand, instead of guessing from headlines.

The four groups

Macro liquidity 25% — the ignition. Cheap borrowed yen has funded bets all over the world for years. If Japan’s rates and inflation force that to unwind, money gets pulled home and every risk asset feels it. The gauge inside this group is the older Unwind Watch, still running.

Regulation 20% — the gate. Big institutions can’t move seriously until the rules are settled. The headline number here is a real betting market on whether the CLARITY Act gets signed — actual money, not our estimate.

Adoption & tokenisation 25% — the demand. Real assets moving on-chain, banks and institutions actually settling on the ledger. This is the slowest group and the one that matters most: without use, nothing else means much.

Supply & float 30% — the squeeze. How much XRP is actually available to buy. As coins sit in ETFs, treasuries and long-term hands, less is left on exchanges — so new demand hits a thinner market.

How to read the meter

Each condition scores against a realistic range, so the needle falls as well as rises. A condition is marked MET when it crosses its trigger. The groups are weighted and combined into one 0–100 number.

It is an index of conditions, not a probability and not a forecast. It can’t tell you what XRP will be worth or when. It only shows how much of the argument is currently supported by things you can actually check — and every number says where it came from and when it was last updated. The thresholds and weights are one set of judgements; reasonable people would pick different ones. Nothing here is financial advice.